Philippine central bank says BOP to shift to deficits in 2025-2026

MANILA, Dec. 26 (Xinhua) -- The Philippines' overall balance of payments (BOP) is projected to shift from a modest surplus in 2024 to deficits in 2025 and 2026, as external headwinds persist, the central bank said Friday.

The BOP summarizes the economic and financial transactions with the rest of the world, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said. "This reversal largely reflects a continued current account shortfall arising from a sustained trade-in-goods gap and weaker services receipts."

It added that foreign direct investments and external loans have also moderated amid lingering global policy uncertainty.

The BSP noted that goods trade is expected to remain soft, shaped by weaker global demand, easing commodity prices, and slower domestic growth momentum.

Services export growth is also projected to moderate due to higher costs relative to competitors in both the business process outsourcing and tourism sectors, the BSP said.

Meanwhile, overseas Filipino remittances are expected to remain resilient, the BSP added.

Based on the latest results from early warning systems on currency crisis and debt sustainability, the BSP said the Philippines "remains resilient to external shocks" as of the fourth quarter of 2025.