Libya Caught in Dilemma

In February 2011, civil war broke out in Libya. Under the military interventions of multiple Western countries, the Gaddafi regime collapsed, and Muammar Gaddafi was captured and killed. Since then, the country’s reconstruction met many challenges, which gradually led the country into political division, economic breakdown, and social unrest. The reason is that a decade of external intervention has dragged Libya into a difficult position, and it also has become the main obstacle to its current development.

Ten years ago, affected by the unstable situations in neighboring countries, people in eastern Libya who were already dissatisfied with Gaddafi’s policies launched demonstrations. The waves of protests quickly spread to most parts of the country and evolved into a civil war between supporters and opponents of the Gaddafi regime, which ended with intervention by external powers. However, Libya did not achieve the expected prosperity and development after the war, but fell into division. This is because the rival factions introduced external intervention during the war only to overthrow the Gaddafi regime. These external forces have then haunted Libya in the post-war era.

In the early post-war period, Western powers exerted influence on the reconstruction of Libya in various ways. They fostered a pro-Western regime, established a Western democratic system, and shared its benefits by participating in economic reconstruction, hoping to build Libya into an obedient follower. After Libya fell into turmoil, the people blamed it on external interventions, and some extremists targeted and attacked Western institutions and people in Libya. Under this circumstance, Western powers have given up on helping Libya.

Political reconstruction is the first and crucial step in Libya’s post-war reconstruction process. However, the Western democratic system encountered unexpected obstacles in the foreign land.

In Libya, the basic environment required for a democratic system has not yet been formulated. Gaddafi’s regime and its political system were backward and incomplete. The concept of Jamahiriya he adopted was unique in the world and was completely disconnected with the well-balanced governments in the rest of the world. The constitution, parliament, political parties and other elements required for democratic politics have long been missing. Meanwhile, people in Libya have a strong tribal consciousness, and they only look to the tribal chiefs. There are hundreds of tribes of different sizes in the country. Among them, the largest tribe has a population of nearly 1 million, and the smallest tribe has less than 100 people. In the eyes of the people, tribal chiefs are more prestigious than regional officials or even national leaders. Although elections are being held under the democratic system, people still vote based on the tribal attributes of the candidates.

In addition, many Western countries interfered with Libyan affairs in a bid to promote Western democracy in Libya. For a long time, Gaddafi's unique way of governing the country had made Western powers dissatisfied and uneasy. They took the opportunity of this domestic revolution in Libya to get rid of Gaddafi, and then, regardless of Libya's political reality, forcibly promoted Western democratic values, getting Libya's regime and reconstruction in trouble.

The poorly conceived democratic regime has not only failed to establish a stable government, but caused Libya to fall into a regime split. Since 2014, Libya has gradually formed two governments and two parliaments in the east and west, which has continued to this day. The split of the regime created numerous obstacles to its economic recovery and social stability after the war.

After the political division, some Western powers supported different camps, making the contradictions between the two parties more complicated and difficult to resolve. The countries that support the western government are mainly Italy, Turkey and Qatar; the countries that support the eastern power are mainly France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. These countries have different methods of showing their support. Some provide funds and weapons to the factions they support; some directly send armies. Their goals vary as well. Some want to realize their own economic interests in Libya, and some intend to maintain border security.

The chaos in Libya have caused serious impacts on neighboring areas. It has worsened the security issues in Africa and aggravated the refugee crisis in Europe. Under this circumstance, the United Nations and some major powers have used various methods to mediate between the two parties in Libya. They realized that only when Libya regains stability could the security and refugee issues be addressed. However, it is extremely difficult to achieve true reconciliation between the opposing parties, and it has not yet been achieved. The two opposing regimes in Libya are proxies fostered by their respective supportors.

Since October 2020, the two sides of the conflict in Libya have shown some positive signs of reconciliation. In October, the two factions reached a complete and permanent ceasefire agreement. So far, no direct armed conflict has erupted. In November, the two sides achieved peace talks within the country for the first time, and they agreed to hold elections on December 24 this year. In January this year, the two sides have agreed on a list of candidates for the transitional government to prepare for the general election at the end of the year. However, differences between the two camps in Libya over the candidates are still there, and the direct and indirect interventions by external forces are continuing. In the short term, the two sides will continue to compete over the regime with the support of external forces. In the long-term, we may still doubt whether the election can be held as scheduled and whether this election can truly end Libya's political division.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the Libyan Civil War and the 70th anniversary of Libya's independence. Since 1951, Libya has never escaped from the influence of external interventions. Because of its abundant energy reserves and geographic location, Libya has been plundered or coveted by many Western countries. Currently, Libya is striving to move from division and chaos to reunification, and external interventions are still important constraints. Facts have proved that only when Libya’s future is determined by its own people can Libya achieve real reconciliation.

Contributed by Wang Jinyan, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of West-Asian and African Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Translated by Ren Meiqi