Do not Let Our Vision be Blocked by Floating Clouds -- World Situation in 2020 from the Perspective of Changes Unseen in A Century

A Review of World Situation

2020 is destined to be extraordinary. The overall world situation of this year can be roughly summed up as a triple “three”.

1. Changes unseen in a century and the centennial journey

The first “three” are three major events that can influence the international pattern.

The first event is the pandemic unseen in a century. The outbreak of COVID-19 is a “black swan” incident. Its destructive power and influence are as great as a world war. It happens in an era of globalization and informationization. Therefore, its rapid spread not only has a profound impact on the world economy and international politics, but also changes people’s ways of life and behaviors. The boundary between traditional and non-traditional security has become increasingly blurred, and the correlated, transnational nature and diversity of security issues have become more prominent. This is the new reality of international politics.

The second is the election unseen in a century. There were many twists and turns in the process of the U.S. presidential election in 2020, and its ending is mysterious. Also the in-depth political problems, serious social problems and governance ability problems exposed through it are unprecedented in American politics. The election will eventually end, but all kinds of chaos after the election will be difficult to end. In addition to the almost out-of-control epidemic, although Biden is ambitious, it will be difficult for him to “unite” the United States, let alone to make the U.S. “lead the world again”.

The third is China’s rejuvenation, moving from its first centennial goal to the new journey of achieving the second. The successful convening of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has kick-started a new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way. This is another major strategic deployment of epoch-making significance in the history of China’s development and a touch of bright color in the overall gloom of global politics and economy.

2. Accelerated resurge of geopolitics

The second “three” are three “minor events” that impact regional patterns. These events are minor when compared with the above-mentioned three “major events”; shadowed or concealed by the three “major events”- - three events that were not minor yet became “trivial” in 2020.

The first event is the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which broke out because of the Naka conflict. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia are not only the junction of Eurasia, but also the intersection of the Middle East and Russia. The importance of their geographic locations is self-evident. In addition, Armenia is a Christian country, Azerbaijan is an Islamic country, Georgia is an Orthodox country, and the languages of the three countries are different. The Naka conflict is not only a territorial dispute between two small countries, but should be examined in the context of the global geo-sensitive zone and the resurgence of “clash of civilizations”. What is more thought-provoking is the fact that Russia, which has troops stationed in Armenia, did not help at the beginning, and the United States also watched standing by. On the contrary, Turkey gave its full support to Azerbaijan, making the latter win. This shows that in the context of big power gaming, geopolitics is accelerating its resurgence, regional conflicts are difficult to stop, and medium-sized powers are emerging. It is chilling to think of the origins of two world wars.

The second is the suspenseful thriller drama staged in the Middle East around the Iran issue. Disasters piled up one on another on Iran. At the beginning of the year, Qassem Suleimani, commander of the Quds Force, was murdered in a precision missile strike in Iraq; near the end of this year, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a top nuclear scientist, was killed on the outskirts of Tehran. At the same time, with the help of the United States, Israel has established diplomatic relations with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan, which is a historic breakthrough in Arab-Israeli relations. However, it makes Iran more isolated. Whether Iran will take risks on the nuclear weapon issue in order to survive, and whether the United States, Israel and even Arab countries will tolerate it are all big issues worthy of attention. Geopolitical, military, and energy security as well as other issues related to the situation in the Middle East are of global influence and significance.

The third is changes in the political ecology of Southeast Asia. In 2020, from its outbreak in February to its reemergence in July, the anti-government street movements surrounding the “constitutional amendment” and other demands in Thailand are still continuing. Southeast Asia seems to be experiencing a new socio-political wave characterized by opposition to family politics and military politics. It seems that Southeast Asia, deeply influenced by Confucianism, Hinduism and Islam, as well as by European and American factors , has come to another important moment.

3. More important to be future-oriented in the “Post-truth Era”

The third “three” are three major trends of long-term impacts.

First, a new round of scientific and technological revolution is coming, and the science and technology games among major powers are becoming increasingly fierce. Marked by big data, blockchain, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and life sciences, the fourth technological revolution is round the corner. Whoever masters the initiative in this technological revolution will win the future. It is a rare historical opportunity for China, which has missed the previous three scientific and technological revolutions, but has caught up with this one. But meanwhile, the suppression China’s high-tech industry is experiencing is unprecedented, indicating that technology will be a new battlefield for the China-US, even international competition.

Second, the “ebb” of globalization is intertwined with the upsurge of regionalization, and global governance is facing major challenges. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is facing challenges from unilateralism and protectionism. Correspondingly, various regional, sub-regional, trilateral and even bilateral arrangements have become popular. In the new round of reshuffle and overall layout of global economic and trade rules, all countries are striving to find their positions.

Third, with various social thoughts contesting each other, the “post-truth era” is thought-provoking. The theory of “clash of civilizations” has come back, and xenophobia, extremism, and adventurism have prevailed. These contradictions are more fully manifested in the European and American world, and their backwash effects and chain reactions cannot be underestimated. On the other hand, it is difficult to tell true from the false in the internet age. It seems that truth is not important anymore. Instead, what matters is who has the right to speak. This is exactly the distortive nature of the so-called "post-truth era". In the face of these strange phenomena that have not been seen in a century, only by maintaining concentration and refusing impetuousness, can our vision be not blocked by clouds and can we finally win the game.

Contributed by Yuan Peng, director of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations

Translated by Pan Meng